Reading Biased Wheels and Other Predictive Methods

Wriggly frets

Wriggly frets are among the most common causes of wheel bias. Frets separate one numbered pocket from another, but they tend to wear out and loosen over time. The higher these separators are, the more prone they become to potential damage. Some dealers involuntarily push or pull the frets while rotating the wheel, which causes some of them to loosen.

When frets are loose, they tend to absorb the impact of the ball better than normal pocket separators. Randomness is disrupted as the ball settles in some pockets or wheel sections more frequently than in others.

Defective ball tracks

Defective ball tracks can also lead to wheel bias. This component of the wheel wears out with extended use, although this normally takes many years. Reputable casinos inspect and replace their roulette wheels far more regularly. Worn-out ball tracks cause ball rattle, which can make specific drop points more frequent. As a result, a section bias may develop.

Unevenly sized pockets

Unevenly sized pockets may disturb the randomness of results because the ball is more likely to settle in a larger pocket than in a smaller one.

Quality and form of the balls

The quality and form of the balls also impact the results a roulette wheel produces. A ball manufactured from low-quality material is more likely to become deformed. In turn, such deformations make it more susceptible to wheel defects such as grooves and tiny cracks.

Wobbling wheels

Wobbling wheels are common culprits when it comes to disrupting roulette’s randomness. A wobble is usually caused by a tilt, where one side of the rotor sits slightly lower than the other. Gravity pulls the ball downward, causing it to favor the tilted side of the wheel.

Because of this, casinos need to ensure their wheels are uniformly weighted. Tilts can also occur when players consciously or unconsciously lean on the wheel’s bowl rim. Many land-based casinos have installed plexiglass shields to prevent this from happening.

The bias that results from wobbling wheels is relatively easy to spot with the naked eye. Detecting it is also less time-consuming because you do not necessarily need to record spin results and compile a large sample size. The more pronounced the tilt is, the less random the results become.

Irregular deceleration

Irregular deceleration is another leading cause of wheel bias. A properly functioning wheel should rotate smoothly and decelerate at a consistent rate. Distortions in the wheel shaft can cause it to decelerate more quickly when the zero is at a certain point around the base of the wheel. This typically occurs when specific rotors and wheel bases are used. Irregular deceleration results in sector biases, especially when a pronounced wheel tilt creates common drop points for the ball.

Material the pockets are padded with

The material used to pad the pockets also affects the game’s results. Newer wheels have their pockets’ bottoms padded with sturdy plastic material, which leads to greater ball bounce. In older wheels, the pockets were lined with soft material glued in place with cement.

When pads wear out, they must be replaced, but the process requires a great deal of precision and diligence. Sometimes the material used for the new pads is not identical to the one originally installed. This creates pockets of trapped air during replacement, which, in turn, affects the pads’ resilience.

Pocket pads that are not equally resilient compromise the wheel’s randomness. Softer materials are less resilient, absorbing more energy from the ball. The ball is retained by such pockets more often, whereas sturdier materials are far more resilient, causing the ball to bounce out of the pockets.

Worn out pockets

Worn-out pockets with minute scratches on their surfaces can create sector bias. Even the tiniest scratch can cause irregularities in friction or impact absorption.

Computer Prediction

Ironically, the first portable computer was created in the early 1960s specifically to beat roulette. It was the brainchild of Edward O. Thorp, known as the “Father of Card Counting,” and Claude Shannon, who laid the foundations of Information Theory.

The device they designed was small enough to be hidden under a jacket. By timing both the wheel and the ball, the computer calculated the sector in which the ball was most likely to settle.

Interestingly, this system performed best on wheels without bias. Casinos, however, could easily thwart users by closing the table for wagering before the ball was released onto the wheel.

In the 1970s, a group of University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) students took a break from their studies to build a small concealable computer that would help them overcome the house edge in roulette. The device was small enough to fit inside a shoe.

The player entered data by tapping a tiny switch with a big toe. Using this input, the computer predicted which of the eight wheel octants the ball would land in. The machine also told the player when to abstain from betting.

The setup required two people. One observed the game and entered data by tapping the switch in a shoe, while the other received signals through an output system attached to the chest and hidden beneath a shirt.

This technology proved effective at the roulette tables, earning the group about $10,000. Despite the success, the Eudaemons – as they called themselves – disbanded after an accident in which one bettor was badly burned when the device’s insulation failed.

Modern versions of these devices exist today, some small enough to be hidden in a pen or even affixed to a tooth. The player clicks the device when the ball passes specific sections or numbers on the track to measure speed and deceleration.

The data is transmitted to a small computer that performs calculations and determines the next winning number. This information reaches the player through either an earpiece or vibrations.

Remember that the use of electronic devices for result prediction is strictly prohibited in many jurisdictions. If caught, players risk lawsuits or permanent bans from casino premises; consequences depend on the jurisdiction in which the device is used.

The UK Gambling Commission, for example, has given casino operators the right to deny payment to such players. In Nevada, the use of electronic devices for outcome prediction is considered cheating and is therefore unlawful.

Identifying the Dealer's Signature

Another form of advantage play in roulette involves a phenomenon known as “the dealer’s signature.” With this approach, the player identifies patterns in the dealer’s ball-release technique.

First, it is impossible for any dealer to release the ball in a way that repeatedly produces the same individual number. When attempting to exploit dealer patterns, the player instead determines whether the ball is consistently released so that it lands on numbers within a specific section of the wheel.

This process is also called “sector slicing.” It enables the player to gain an edge over the house by betting on the numbers in that section. Achieving accuracy, however, is easier said than done. Most dealers fall into routines unconsciously because of muscle memory.

At the start of a new round, the dealer picks the ball from the pocket where it last settled, brings it to the top of the wheel, and releases it again. A dealer with a signature spins the ball in such a way that it often lands several pockets away from the number that appeared on the previous spin.

Even when done subconsciously, this produces controlled rather than random results. Players who use this technique do not focus on the exact numbers that hit; instead, they try to establish the distance, in pockets, between the current winning number and the previous one.

The approach is not without logic, but there is no guarantee it will be effective in practice. For instance, if the ball hits one of the deflectors on the wheel, it will bounce off and the outcome will again be random, even if the dealer has a signature.

Visual Tracking

Unlike computer-based methods, visual tracking is a completely legal approach to predicting roulette outcomes. This method requires a considerable amount of patience, practice, and visual acuity to succeed. It involves carefully observing the ball’s trajectory in relation to the counter rotation of the wheelhead to predict the section where the ball is most likely to land.

The approach yields respectable results when the right playing conditions are present. It is said to work best on old-model wheels. The dealer should spin the ball quickly while maintaining a stable, medium-speed rotation of the wheelhead. A recurring ball drop is also necessary, as is a heavier, less bouncy ball inclined to stay several pockets away from where it first lands on the wheelhead.

The method requires an unobstructed view of the wheelhead and the ball, which is why it works best when two people use it as a team. One person tracks the ball’s trajectory and signals a partner who places the actual wagers.

The ideal position for a visual tracker is right next to the wheel, at the plexiglass shield, immediately beside the last table seat. From there, the bettor can clearly see the tracker’s signals and react accordingly.

The bettor, meanwhile, should sit toward the back of the table, immediately next to the dealer. This position allows them to effortlessly see the tracker’s signals and gives them easy access to the betting layout.

The issue is that many casinos no longer use old-model roulette wheels, opting instead for newer, sturdier designs with shallower pocket separators. Visual tracking is therefore less likely to work under modern playing conditions.